Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniuseswin 2:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Made in Philippinesloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Army Geniuses
Grimstroke
Varizh · 11 games
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 10 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Azur4 · 8 games
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
woMy · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Azur4 · 6 games
Marsoften banned
woMy · 6 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
db- · 6 games
Made in Philippines
Templar Assassinoften banned
Ken · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Rupido · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
Rupido · 3 games
Bane
Teehee · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Rupido · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Rupido · 2 games
Kunkkaoften banned
JG · 2 games
Puckoften banned
JG · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
500 picks · 446 bans
Mars
488 picks · 693 bans
Bane
463 picks · 286 bans
Dragon Knight
438 picks · 525 bans
Sand King
409 picks · 560 bans
Storm Spirit
402 picks · 646 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 614 bans
Grimstroke
363 picks · 311 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 54%
Hero pool strength53% Made in Philippines
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Army Geniuses 60%Made in Philippines 40%
The model gave 60% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Made in Philippines.
Game 2prediction correct
Army Geniuses 60%Made in Philippines 40%
The model gave 60% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses.
Game 3prediction correct
Army Geniuses 60%Made in Philippines 40%
The model gave 60% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses.
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 60%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3