Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Wolf Teamwin 2:1series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 2:1
beastcoastloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wolf Team
No games played over 6 months.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
503 picks · 446 bans
Mars
489 picks · 694 bans
Bane
463 picks · 286 bans
Dragon Knight
438 picks · 525 bans
Sand King
409 picks · 561 bans
Storm Spirit
403 picks · 646 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 614 bans
Grimstroke
363 picks · 311 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Wolf Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Wolf Team 22%beastcoast 78%
The model gave 78% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Wolf Team.
Game 2prediction correct
Wolf Team 22%beastcoast 78%
The model gave 78% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast.
Game 3prediction missed
Wolf Team 22%beastcoast 78%
The model gave 78% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Wolf Team.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 78%
Series resultWolf Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3