Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Tempestloss 1:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Infinity Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tempest
No games played over 6 months.
Infinity Esports
Weaveroften banned
Jupiter · 13 games
Marsoften banned
Cys · 11 games
Snapfire
Jupiter · 10 games
Invokeroften banned
mini-` · 8 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Benny · 8 games
Bane
Nuages · 6 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
mini-` · 6 games
Treant Protector
Nuages · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
502 picks · 444 bans
Mars
489 picks · 695 bans
Bane
462 picks · 286 bans
Dragon Knight
438 picks · 525 bans
Sand King
410 picks · 561 bans
Storm Spirit
403 picks · 646 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 614 bans
Grimstroke
360 picks · 311 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 36%
Hero pool strength54% Tempest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Infinity Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:12
Tempest 42%Infinity Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 35:49.
Game 2prediction correct31:10
Tempest 42%Infinity Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 30:37.
Game 3prediction correct19:48
Tempest 42%Infinity Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 34:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteInfinity Esports · 58%
Series resultInfinity Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3