Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empirewin 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
EU Rejectsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire
Marsoften banned
DkFogas · 20 games
Grimstroke
[T]SA · 18 games
Clockwerk
[T]SA · 16 games
Tiny
Cooman · 16 games
Bane
Kaori · 15 games
Sand Kingoften banned
DkFogas · 14 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
[T]SA · 10 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Dodren · 10 games
EU Rejects
Visageoften banned
Chessie · 3 games
Chenoften banned
j4 · 2 games
Juggernautoften banned
Shad · 2 games
Marcioften banned
Shad · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
5up · 2 games
Pugnaoften banned
j4 · 2 games
Viperoften banned
Chessie · 2 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Chessie · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
501 picks · 444 bans
Mars
489 picks · 694 bans
Bane
461 picks · 286 bans
Dragon Knight
437 picks · 525 bans
Sand King
410 picks · 561 bans
Storm Spirit
403 picks · 645 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 612 bans
Grimstroke
360 picks · 311 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)34% vs 29%
Hero pool strength50% EU Rejects
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:39
Team Empire 56%EU Rejects 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 43:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracIllidan
Keeper of the LightAdzantick
VisageShachlo
BristlebackChessie
BatriderSquad1x
Dragon KnightShad
Io633
HoodwinkTANNER
ClockwerkjAMES
Crystal Maidenj4
Game 2prediction correct31:17
Team Empire 54%EU Rejects 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 37:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaIllidan
SniperShad
TinySquad1x
TimbersawChessie
UnderlordShachlo
TuskAdzantick
Jakiro633
Keeper of the LightTANNER
MarcijAMES
Banej4
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 62%
Series resultTeam Empire 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2