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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
GeneRaL · 13 games
62%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
ALOHADANCE · 11 games
45%
Puck
Puckoften banned
No[o]ne · 10 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
V-Tune · 10 games
40%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Solo · 9 games
44%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
No[o]ne · 9 games
33%
Silencer
Silencer
Solo · 9 games
56%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
ALOHADANCE · 9 games
56%

Team Spirit

Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 21 game
62%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Collapse · 12 games
58%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Mira · 11 games
55%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 11 games
64%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yatoro · 11 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 10 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Mira · 10 games
70%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
499 picks · 445 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
487 picks · 691 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
460 picks · 285 bans
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
438 picks · 521 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
410 picks · 561 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
402 picks · 645 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
373 picks · 608 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
359 picks · 311 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 52%
Hero pool strength56% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total58% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:37
Natus Vincere 45%Team Spirit 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 52:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightNo[o]ne
46% · 93 games57% · 87 games
Faceless VoidYatoro
Faceless Void
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetV-Tune
53% · 33 games46% · 15 games
ZeusTORONTOTOKYO
Zeus
Venomancer
Venomancerlaise
56% · 20 games49% · 85 games
BeastmasterCollapse
Beastmaster
Tiny
Tinyswedenstrong
45% · 125 games50% · 74 games
RubickMira
Rubick
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSolo
46% · 88 games57% · 98 games
AbaddonMiposhka
Abaddon
Game 2prediction correct27:31
Natus Vincere 44%Team Spirit 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 48:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightV-Tune
53% · 101 game55% · 156 games
Monkey KingYatoro
Monkey King
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
52% · 318 games61% · 113 games
BeastmasterCollapse
Beastmaster
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerlaise
39% · 72 games39% · 161 game
Void SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
Void Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightswedenstrong
58% · 145 games45% · 183 games
SnapfireMira
Snapfire
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernSolo
52% · 74 games44% · 97 games
DisruptorMiposhka
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 58%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2