Royal Never Give Up vs EHOME — prediction DPC2S—К 3 · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3

result vs prediction

Royal Never Give Upwin 2:1

series probability

53%47%

probability at match start · final 2:1

EHOMEloss 1:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Royal Never Give Up

No games played over 6 months.

EHOME

Pangolieroften banned

zeal · 18 games

50%

Bane

zzq · 15 games

47%

Templar Assassinoften banned

shiro · 15 games

47%

Rubick

pLAnet · 12 games

42%

Sand Kingsignature

zeal · 10 games

60%

Ember Spiritoften banned

Echo · 8 games

38%

Morphlingsignature

shiro · 8 games

63%

Tidehuntersignature

zeal · 8 games

75%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Tiny

499 picks · 446 bans

49%

Mars

489 picks · 689 bans

48%

Bane

462 picks · 285 bans

58%

Dragon Knight

437 picks · 522 bans

52%

Sand King

411 picks · 563 bans

54%

Storm Spirit

402 picks · 645 bans

56%

Pangolier

373 picks · 608 bans

51%

Grimstroke

361 picks · 311 bans

46%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)53% vs 47%

Hero pool strength52% EHOME

Head-to-head4 – 0

Model total53% Royal Never Give Up

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed31:6

Royal Never Give Up 53%EHOME 47%

The model gave 53% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by EHOME in 29:23.

Game 2prediction missed15:27

Royal Never Give Up 53%EHOME 47%

The model gave 53% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by EHOME in 29:08.

Game 3prediction missed25:13

Royal Never Give Up 53%EHOME 47%

The model gave 53% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by EHOME in 32:47.

Model check result

Model favoriteRoyal Never Give Up · 53%

Series resultRoyal Never Give Up 2:1

Series predictioncorrect

Accuracy by game0 of 3