Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
LBZSwin 2:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ybb Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LBZS
Death Prophetoften banned
Shanks · 12 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Shanks · 8 games
Tusk
CatYou · 8 games
Mirana
CatYou · 6 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
Molasses · 6 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Molasses · 6 games
Razoroften banned
Shanks · 5 games
Tiny
Fonte · 5 games
Ybb Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
497 picks · 445 bans
Mars
488 picks · 689 bans
Bane
462 picks · 285 bans
Dragon Knight
436 picks · 521 bans
Sand King
411 picks · 563 bans
Storm Spirit
402 picks · 645 bans
Pangolier
372 picks · 608 bans
Grimstroke
360 picks · 311 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)17% vs 29%
Hero pool strength59% Ybb Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% LBZS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:37
LBZS 52%Ybb Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on LBZS — the game was taken by Ybb Gaming in 45:18.
Game 2prediction correct24:7
LBZS 52%Ybb Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on LBZS — the game was taken by LBZS in 25:29.
Game 3prediction correct38:21
LBZS 52%Ybb Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on LBZS — the game was taken by LBZS in 31:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteLBZS · 52%
Series resultLBZS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3