Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Infamouswin 2:1series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SG e-sportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infamous
Banesignature
Prada · 7 games
Monkey Kingsignature
PiPi · 7 games
Tusksignature
Pamplona · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
PiPi · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Mariano · 5 games
Queen of Painoften banned
PiPi · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
PiPi · 4 games
Snapfire
Prada · 4 games
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
498 picks · 445 bans
Mars
488 picks · 687 bans
Bane
465 picks · 285 bans
Dragon Knight
437 picks · 521 bans
Sand King
411 picks · 563 bans
Storm Spirit
402 picks · 645 bans
Pangolier
372 picks · 607 bans
Grimstroke
358 picks · 311 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 62%
Hero pool strength55% Infamous
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total78% Infamous
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:27
Infamous 78%SG e-sports 22%
The model gave 78% on Infamous — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 45:27.
Game 2prediction missed22:38
Infamous 78%SG e-sports 22%
The model gave 78% on Infamous — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 32:16.
Game 3prediction missed30:30
Infamous 78%SG e-sports 22%
The model gave 78% on Infamous — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 39:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteInfamous · 78%
Series resultInfamous 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3