Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
X3win 2:1series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
11Monkeyzloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
X3
Bane
antoha · 23 games
Pugnaoften banned
antoha · 11 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Mastery · 10 games
Hoodwink
velheor · 10 games
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 10 games
Treant Protectorsignature
smN · 10 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
NattyNarwhal · 9 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
nesfeer · 8 games
11Monkeyz
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
497 picks · 446 bans
Mars
490 picks · 685 bans
Bane
466 picks · 286 bans
Dragon Knight
436 picks · 517 bans
Sand King
413 picks · 565 bans
Storm Spirit
402 picks · 647 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 607 bans
Grimstroke
356 picks · 311 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% X3
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:20
X3 61%11Monkeyz 39%
The model gave 61% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 28:26.
Game 2prediction missed10:29
X3 61%11Monkeyz 39%
The model gave 61% on X3 — the game was taken by 11Monkeyz in 24:44.
Game 3prediction correct39:14
X3 61%11Monkeyz 39%
The model gave 61% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 35:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 61%
Series resultX3 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3