Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
T1win 2:0series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxy SEAloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Nigma Galaxy SEA
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
496 picks · 444 bans
Mars
488 picks · 684 bans
Bane
463 picks · 283 bans
Dragon Knight
437 picks · 517 bans
Sand King
413 picks · 565 bans
Storm Spirit
400 picks · 647 bans
Pangolier
373 picks · 607 bans
Grimstroke
355 picks · 309 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 48%
Hero pool strength50% T1
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total59% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:21
T1 41%Nigma Galaxy SEA 59%
The model gave 59% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 33:41.
Game 2prediction correct37:7
T1 41%Nigma Galaxy SEA 59%
The model gave 59% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 28:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 59%
Series resultT1 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2