?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
TNC Predatorloss 1:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Execrationwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TNC Predator

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Bombi · 13 games
62%
Mars
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 11 games
55%
Tiny
Tinysignature
YoungGodLevi · 11 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
xiaoyu154 · 10 games
80%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
xsilearn · 9 games
67%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
YoungGodLevi · 8 games
38%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
xiaoyu154 · 8 games
75%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Roddgeee · 8 games
63%

Execration

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 16 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 15 games
27%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Tino- · 14 games
64%
Bane
Bane
RR · 13 games
38%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
RR · 12 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
RR · 10 games
40%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
RR · 10 games
50%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Shanks · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
493 picks · 443 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
486 picks · 683 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
461 picks · 283 bans
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
437 picks · 515 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
411 picks · 566 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
399 picks · 649 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
374 picks · 606 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
354 picks · 310 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 38%
Hero pool strength56% TNC Predator
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:16
TNC Predator 48%Execration 52%
The model gave 52% on Execration — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 34:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorBok
49% · 200 games44% · 72 games
KunkkaPalos
Kunkka
Pudge
PudgeYowe
48% · 19 games56% · 74 games
Templar AssassinBob
Templar Assassin
Visage
Visagecml
51% · 34 gameslittle data
MarciTino-
Marci
51% · 67 games
HoodwinkShanks
Hoodwink
52% · 40 games
JakiroRR
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct14:16
TNC Predator 49%Execration 51%
The model gave 51% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 31:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverYowe
46% · 217 games49% · 141 game
MedusaPalos
Medusa
Enigma
EnigmaBok
48% · 36 games67% · 152 games
BeastmasterTino-
Beastmaster
Bane
Banecml
49% · 390 games46% · 137 games
Sand KingBob
Sand King
47% · 113 games
MiranaShanks
Mirana
52% · 100 games
Nyx AssassinRR
Nyx Assassin
Game 3prediction correct29:30
TNC Predator 47%Execration 53%
The model gave 53% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 44:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaYowe
57% · 123 games45% · 91 game
LinaBob
Lina
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritBok
56% · 28 games36% · 7 games
BristlebackPalos
Bristleback
Silencer
Silencercml
49% · 33 games52% · 16 games
EnigmaShanks
Enigma
38% · 35 games
TimbersawTino-
Timbersaw
51% · 35 games
PugnaRR
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 52%
Series resultExecration 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3