PREMIER SERIES: Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Power Rangerswin 2:1series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:1
AVULUSloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Power Rangers
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 21 game
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Alberkaaa · 17 games
Phoenix
Immersion · 17 games
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 17 games
Lunasignature
nesfeer · 16 games
Tinyoften banned
nicky`cool · 15 games
Templar Assassinsignature
nesfeer · 13 games
Tusk
Immersion · 12 games
AVULUS
Jakirooften banned
asdekor_r · 31 game
Puckoften banned
dualrazee · 27 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 27 games
Warlock
asdekor_r · 19 games
Marsoften banned
Corrupted · 18 games
Hoodwinksignature
Wein · 17 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Smiling Knight · 17 games
Phoenix
asdekor_r · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
628 picks · 815 bans
Tiny
557 picks · 575 bans
Tusk
451 picks · 400 bans
Warlock
448 picks · 296 bans
Shadow Demon
400 picks · 1046 bans
Ember Spirit
386 picks · 680 bans
Mars
379 picks · 598 bans
Centaur Warrunner
361 picks · 514 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 40%
Hero pool strength59% Power Rangers
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total71% Power Rangers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:39
Power Rangers 61%AVULUS 39%
The model gave 61% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by AVULUS in 33:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunanesfeer
Shadow Fienddualrazee
Tinynicky`cool
WindrangerDarkLord^
DazzleAlberkaaa
TidehunterPalantimos
ChenHduo
Hoodwinkqueezy
TuskImmersion
Shadow Demonasdekor_r
Game 2prediction correct36:11
Power Rangers 63%AVULUS 37%
The model gave 63% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 38:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keznesfeer
Templar AssassinDarkLord^
Slardarnicky`cool
Puckdualrazee
MarsAlberkaaa
RazorPalantimos
Shadow DemonImmersion
Tinyqueezy
JakiroHduo
Phoenixasdekor_r
Game 3prediction correct30:10
Power Rangers 63%AVULUS 37%
The model gave 63% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 39:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keznesfeer
Templar AssassinDarkLord^
Huskarnicky`cool
Storm Spiritdualrazee
MarsAlberkaaa
Chenasdekor_r
JakiroHduo
TidehunterPalantimos
Shadow DemonImmersion
Dark Willowqueezy
Model check result
Model favoritePower Rangers · 71%
Series resultPower Rangers 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3