Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Into The Breachwin 2:1series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
EU Rejectsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Into The Breach
Bane
5up · 7 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Era · 7 games
Marsoften banned
Xibbe · 7 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Era · 6 games
Snapfire
Era · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 5 games
Enigmaoften banned
Xibbe · 4 games
Jakiro
Peksu · 4 games
EU Rejects
Visageoften banned
Chessie · 3 games
Juggernautoften banned
Shad · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
5up · 2 games
Pugnaoften banned
j4 · 2 games
Earthshaker
5up · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
j4 · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
Shad · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
Adzantick · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
494 picks · 445 bans
Mars
488 picks · 686 bans
Bane
462 picks · 282 bans
Dragon Knight
436 picks · 514 bans
Sand King
413 picks · 568 bans
Storm Spirit
399 picks · 652 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 607 bans
Grimstroke
353 picks · 310 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 33%
Hero pool strength59% Into The Breach
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Into The Breach
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:28
Into The Breach 65%EU Rejects 35%
The model gave 65% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by EU Rejects in 34:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverOtaker
BristlebackChessie
Ember SpiritSupream^
DawnbreakerAdzantick
BeastmasterXibbe
MarciShad
Shadow ShamanAri
Chenj4
Crystal MaidenKidaro
Keeper of the LightTANNER
Game 2prediction correct49:28
Into The Breach 64%EU Rejects 36%
The model gave 64% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 54:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckSupream^
Naga SirenShad
TerrorbladeOtaker
ZeusAdzantick
Dragon KnightXibbe
ViperChessie
EnigmaKidaro
Clockwerkj4
Skywrath MageAri
HoodwinkTANNER
Game 3prediction correct28:18
Into The Breach 66%EU Rejects 34%
The model gave 66% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 32:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the LightSupream^
ViperChessie
WeaverOtaker
LifestealerShad
BeastmasterXibbe
Ember SpiritAdzantick
Crystal MaidenKidaro
Chenj4
Shadow ShamanAri
MarciTANNER
Model check result
Model favoriteInto The Breach · 72%
Series resultInto The Breach 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3