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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empireloss 0:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
YNTwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Empire

Mars
Marsoften banned
DkFogas · 20 games
35%
Bane
Bane
[T]SA · 17 games
35%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
[T]SA · 17 games
29%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
[T]SA · 15 games
40%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
DkFogas · 14 games
43%
Tiny
Tiny
Cooman · 13 games
54%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Iceberg · 11 games
27%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
[T]SA · 10 games
40%

YNT

Mars
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 10 games
40%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
jesv · 9 games
33%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Malr1ne · 9 games
44%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Dominic · 9 games
56%
Tiny
Tiny
DarkLord^ · 9 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
dSa · 8 games
25%
Bane
Bane
dSa · 7 games
57%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
DarkLord^ · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
492 picks · 445 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
488 picks · 684 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
462 picks · 282 bans
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
436 picks · 513 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
413 picks · 568 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
398 picks · 652 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
374 picks · 605 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
352 picks · 310 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 32%
Hero pool strength52% YNT
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:27
Team Empire 53%YNT 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Empire — the game was taken by YNT in 36:26.
Game 2prediction missed8:26
Team Empire 53%YNT 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Empire — the game was taken by YNT in 26:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 53%
Series resultYNT 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2