Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
MooN teamwin 2:1series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Hydraloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MooN team
No games played over 6 months.
Hydra
Puckoften banned
Askold · 28 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Blizzy · 25 games
Bane
Muka · 20 games
Hoodwink
Muka · 20 games
Invokersignature
Askold · 19 games
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 18 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 16 games
Jakirosignature
Zayac · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
490 picks · 446 bans
Mars
489 picks · 685 bans
Bane
461 picks · 282 bans
Dragon Knight
435 picks · 512 bans
Sand King
414 picks · 569 bans
Storm Spirit
398 picks · 651 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 603 bans
Grimstroke
352 picks · 309 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:17
MooN team 31%Hydra 69%
The model gave 69% on Hydra — the game was taken by MooN team in 30:08.
Game 2prediction correct13:36
MooN team 31%Hydra 69%
The model gave 69% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 47:19.
Game 3prediction missed28:15
MooN team 31%Hydra 69%
The model gave 69% on Hydra — the game was taken by MooN team in 31:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 69%
Series resultMooN team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3