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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 2:0
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Polaris Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Bane
Bane
ninjaboogie · 19 games
53%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Moon · 14 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
AhFu · 11 games
36%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
AhFu · 10 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Moon · 9 games
44%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Moon · 7 games
29%
Io
Iooften banned
AhFu · 6 games
50%
Lina
Linasignature
Moon · 6 games
67%

Polaris Esports

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Mac · 20 games
80%
Mars
Marssignature
Force · 18 games
61%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Boomy · 11 games
73%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Boomy · 9 games
67%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Natsumi · 9 games
78%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
PlayHard · 9 games
78%
Tiny
Tiny
Natsumi · 9 games
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Mac · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
490 picks · 447 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
488 picks · 683 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
461 picks · 284 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
433 picks · 512 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
415 picks · 569 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
398 picks · 651 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 600 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
352 picks · 309 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 58%
Hero pool strength60% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total64% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:35
Team SMG 44%Polaris Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Team SMG in 37:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightMoon
57% · 77 games46% · 107 games
KunkkaNatsumi
Kunkka
Monkey King
Monkey KingMidOne
58% · 191 game48% · 55 games
BatriderMac
Batrider
Warlock
Warlockpieliedie
little data40% · 23 games
DawnbreakerNevermine
Dawnbreaker
Enigma
EnigmaAhFu
48% · 29 games43% · 112 games
SnapfireBoomy
Snapfire
Game 2prediction missed45:42
Team SMG 40%Polaris Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Team SMG in 47:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMidOne
43% · 277 games47% · 7 games
PudgeNatsumi
Pudge
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernMoon
45% · 88 games47% · 254 games
MarsNevermine
Mars
Enigma
EnigmaAhFu
61% · 42 games49% · 147 games
Dragon KnightMac
Dragon Knight
Enchantress
Enchantresspieliedie
49% · 186 games61% · 185 games
MiranaBoomy
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 64%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2