Winline Insight · BO3
result vs prediction
HFwin 2:0series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ChillOutloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HF
Sand Kingsignature
Cloud · 14 games
Miranasignature
ArrOw · 13 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 12 games
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 12 games
Bane
Malady · 8 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Kaori · 8 games
Iosignature
Kaori · 7 games
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 7 games
ChillOut
Phantom Lanceroften banned
paradise' · 1 game
Snapfire
lilskrip · 1 game
Undying
lilskrip · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
paradise' · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
490 picks · 449 bans
Mars
488 picks · 683 bans
Bane
461 picks · 284 bans
Dragon Knight
433 picks · 512 bans
Sand King
415 picks · 569 bans
Storm Spirit
398 picks · 652 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 600 bans
Grimstroke
352 picks · 309 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 29%
Hero pool strength65% HF
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% HF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:10
HF 82%ChillOut 18%
The model gave 82% on HF — the game was taken by HF in 25:27.
Game 2prediction correct
HF 82%ChillOut 18%
The model gave 82% on HF — the game was taken by HF.
Model check result
Model favoriteHF · 82%
Series resultHF 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2