Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxy SEAloss 1:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Talon Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy SEA
No games played over 6 months.
Talon Esports
Marsoften banned
kpii · 9 games
Bane
Fly · 6 games
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 6 games
Death Prophetsignature
kpii · 6 games
Morphlingoften banned
23savage · 6 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 5 games
Grimstroke
Q · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
490 picks · 448 bans
Mars
486 picks · 681 bans
Bane
460 picks · 284 bans
Dragon Knight
431 picks · 511 bans
Sand King
416 picks · 570 bans
Storm Spirit
400 picks · 653 bans
Pangolier
377 picks · 599 bans
Grimstroke
354 picks · 309 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 75%
Hero pool strength60% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:14
Nigma Galaxy SEA 65%Talon Esports 35%
The model gave 65% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 41:04.
Game 2prediction missed37:36
Nigma Galaxy SEA 65%Talon Esports 35%
The model gave 65% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 1:21:39.
Game 3prediction missed7:19
Nigma Galaxy SEA 65%Talon Esports 35%
The model gave 65% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 33:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 65%
Series resultTalon Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3