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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Atlantiswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Mirana
Mirana
NARMAN · 12 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Enryu · 12 games
58%
Lion
Lionsignature
NARMAN · 11 games
64%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Karma丶 · 11 games
45%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Jing · 11 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Enryu · 9 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
MamangDaya · 9 games
56%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
MamangDaya · 8 games
63%

Atlantis

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
491 picks · 448 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
485 picks · 679 bans
47%
Bane
Bane
459 picks · 284 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
432 picks · 508 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
415 picks · 570 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 653 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
378 picks · 599 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
354 picks · 308 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)19% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:13
Neon Esports 53%Atlantis 47%
The model gave 53% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 27:37.
Game 2prediction missed11:18
Neon Esports 53%Atlantis 47%
The model gave 53% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Atlantis in 31:19.
Game 3prediction missed6:26
Neon Esports 53%Atlantis 47%
The model gave 53% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Atlantis in 24:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 53%
Series resultAtlantis 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3