Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Team DogChampwin 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Happy Sealsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team DogChamp
Bane
Bloody Nine · 16 games
Marsoften banned
lukiluki · 13 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
yarintheslayer · 11 games
Tiny
StoneBank · 10 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
StoneBank · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
lukiluki · 9 games
Medusaoften banned
StoneBank · 7 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
StoneBank · 7 games
Happy Seals
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
490 picks · 450 bans
Mars
487 picks · 678 bans
Bane
459 picks · 282 bans
Dragon Knight
432 picks · 507 bans
Sand King
415 picks · 570 bans
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 653 bans
Pangolier
378 picks · 599 bans
Grimstroke
354 picks · 308 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 30%
Hero pool strength53% Happy Seals
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:44
Team DogChamp 66%Happy Seals 34%
The model gave 66% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 1:08:09.
Game 2prediction correct31:15
Team DogChamp 66%Happy Seals 34%
The model gave 66% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 21:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 66%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2