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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wildcard Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
Hyko · 7 games
86%
Bane
Banesignature
Wij · 6 games
83%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Hyko · 6 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Parker · 5 games
40%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Wij · 4 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Hyko · 4 games
0%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Parker · 4 games
75%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Parker · 4 games
75%

Wildcard Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
Sunlight · 11 games
36%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
The Warden · 10 games
70%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Lil · 10 games
30%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Ark · 9 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Sunlight · 8 games
63%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
The Warden · 8 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
iAnnihilate · 8 games
75%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Ark · 7 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
490 picks · 451 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
486 picks · 677 bans
47%
Bane
Bane
459 picks · 282 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
432 picks · 506 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
415 picks · 571 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 653 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
378 picks · 599 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
353 picks · 308 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total63% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:13
Evil Geniuses 63%Wildcard Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 40:08.
Game 2prediction missed38:31
Evil Geniuses 63%Wildcard Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 42:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 63%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2