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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
iNSaNiA · 14 games
43%
Mars
Marsoften banned
zai · 14 games
43%
Io
Iooften banned
iNSaNiA · 13 games
46%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Boxi · 11 games
91%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Boxi · 10 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 9 games
22%
Razor
Razoroften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 9 games
56%
Bane
Banesignature
iNSaNiA · 8 games
88%

Gaimin Gladiators

Bane
Banesignature
tOfu · 24 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 21 game
62%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 20 games
65%
Mars
Marssignature
Ace · 19 games
63%
Weaver
Weaversignature
tOfu · 18 games
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 16 games
69%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
tOfu · 16 games
56%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Ace · 16 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
490 picks · 452 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
487 picks · 676 bans
47%
Bane
Bane
460 picks · 282 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
431 picks · 505 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
414 picks · 571 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 653 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
378 picks · 600 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
353 picks · 306 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total62% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:16
Team Liquid 44%Gaimin Gladiators 56%
The model gave 56% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 39:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerMATUMBAMAN
54% · 80 games57% · 18 games
Bristlebackdyrachyo
Bristleback
Necrophos
Necrophoszai
63% · 36 games41% · 169 games
Dragon KnightBOOM
Dragon Knight
Puck
PuckmiCKe
53% · 175 games53% · 37 games
DawnbreakerAce
Dawnbreaker
Monkey King
Monkey KingBoxi
55% · 140 games42% · 211 games
WeavertOfu
Weaver
Oracle
OracleiNSaNiA
49% · 17 games41% · 13 games
Crystal MaidenSeleri
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed23:12
Team Liquid 40%Gaimin Gladiators 60%
The model gave 60% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 41:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidMATUMBAMAN
50% · 4 games46% · 54 games
Medusadyrachyo
Medusa
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderzai
44% · 35 games49% · 80 games
PuckBOOM
Puck
Sven
SvenmiCKe
51% · 54 games60% · 29 games
LycanAce
Lycan
Disruptor
DisruptoriNSaNiA
51% · 124 games43% · 3 games
Crystal MaidentOfu
Crystal Maiden
Marci
MarciBoxi
38% · 10 games55% · 61 game
Treant ProtectorSeleri
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 62%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2