Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
MooN teamloss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
11Monkeyzwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MooN team
No games played over 6 months.
11Monkeyz
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
490 picks · 452 bans
Mars
487 picks · 676 bans
Bane
460 picks · 282 bans
Dragon Knight
431 picks · 505 bans
Sand King
414 picks · 571 bans
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 653 bans
Pangolier
378 picks · 599 bans
Grimstroke
353 picks · 306 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% MooN team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% 11Monkeyz
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:22
MooN team 47%11Monkeyz 53%
The model gave 53% on 11Monkeyz — the game was taken by 11Monkeyz in 41:00.
Game 2prediction correct14:24
MooN team 47%11Monkeyz 53%
The model gave 53% on 11Monkeyz — the game was taken by 11Monkeyz in 22:43.
Model check result
Model favorite11Monkeyz · 53%
Series result11Monkeyz 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2