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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 18 games
44%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 18 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
bzm · 14 games
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 14 games
71%
Bane
Banesignature
Misha · 13 games
62%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 12 games
92%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Taiga · 11 games
82%
Puck
Puckoften banned
bzm · 11 games
45%

Tundra Esports

Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 25 games
60%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 19 games
74%
Bane
Banesignature
Fata · 18 games
83%
Io
Iosignature
Sneyking · 18 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 18 games
83%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Skiter · 18 games
83%
Visage
Visagesignature
33 · 16 games
75%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Sneyking · 16 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
490 picks · 452 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
486 picks · 676 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
460 picks · 282 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
431 picks · 505 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
414 picks · 571 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 653 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
378 picks · 598 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
353 picks · 306 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 67%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head4 – 5
Model total51% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:32
OG 50%Tundra Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on OG — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 33:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverYuragi
49% · 178 games50% · 133 games
RazorSkiter
Razor
Batrider
Batriderbzm
51% · 53 games43% · 3 games
ZeusNine
Zeus
Enigma
EnigmaTaiga
66% · 20 games52% · 51 game
Lycan33
Lycan
Jakiro
JakiroMisha
53% · 59 games49% · 89 games
DoomSaksa
Doom
Void Spirit
Void SpiritATF
44% · 125 games49% · 159 games
IoSneyking
Io
Game 2prediction missed2:13
OG 51%Tundra Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 17:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void Spiritbzm
44% · 164 games49% · 213 games
RazorSkiter
Razor
Monkey King
Monkey KingYuragi
56% · 184 games52% · 82 games
Lycan33
Lycan
Mars
MarsATF
47% · 355 games51% · 140 games
ClockwerkNine
Clockwerk
Enigma
EnigmaTaiga
61% · 36 games56% · 160 games
RubickSaksa
Rubick
Jakiro
JakiroMisha
46% · 80 games44% · 224 games
IoSneyking
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 51%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2