Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empireloss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
KBU.USwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire
Marsoften banned
DkFogas · 21 game
Bane
[T]SA · 19 games
Grimstroke
[T]SA · 18 games
Clockwerk
[T]SA · 15 games
Sand Kingoften banned
DkFogas · 14 games
Tiny
Cooman · 12 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Iceberg · 11 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 10 games
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
489 picks · 452 bans
Mars
485 picks · 675 bans
Bane
460 picks · 282 bans
Dragon Knight
431 picks · 505 bans
Sand King
414 picks · 571 bans
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 653 bans
Pangolier
377 picks · 598 bans
Grimstroke
353 picks · 305 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 48%
Hero pool strength56% KBU.US
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total50% KBU.US
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:31
Team Empire 50%KBU.US 50%
The model gave 50% on KBU.US — the game was taken by KBU.US in 22:02.
Game 2prediction correct27:53
Team Empire 50%KBU.US 50%
The model gave 50% on KBU.US — the game was taken by KBU.US in 39:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteKBU.US · 50%
Series resultKBU.US 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2