Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DGG Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Bane
KuroKy · 14 games
Weaveroften banned
KuroKy · 10 games
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
Invokeroften banned
Miracle- · 9 games
Tusk
GH · 9 games
Dark Seersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
Sand Kingoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
Clockwerk
GH · 7 games
DGG Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
486 picks · 452 bans
Mars
484 picks · 676 bans
Bane
460 picks · 281 bans
Dragon Knight
429 picks · 505 bans
Sand King
414 picks · 571 bans
Storm Spirit
402 picks · 652 bans
Pangolier
377 picks · 596 bans
Grimstroke
353 picks · 307 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% DGG Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:30
Nigma Galaxy 69%DGG Esports 31%
The model gave 69% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 39:41.
Game 2prediction correct38:14
Nigma Galaxy 69%DGG Esports 31%
The model gave 69% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 26:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 69%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2