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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Aster.Arieswin 2:0
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aster.Aries

Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
TK · 7 games
86%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
RedPanda · 7 games
71%
Mars
Marsoften banned
生死 · 6 games
33%
Razor
Razorsignature
Ulu · 6 games
83%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
生死 · 5 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
生死 · 5 games
40%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Ulu · 4 games
25%
Io
Iooften banned
TK · 4 games
50%

Xtreme Gaming

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
lou · 14 games
71%
Puck
Pucksignature
Paparazi · 13 games
62%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
lou · 13 games
69%
Bane
Banesignature
Dy · 12 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Paparazi · 12 games
75%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pyw · 12 games
100%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ELeVeN · 11 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Paparazi · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
486 picks · 677 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
486 picks · 453 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
459 picks · 281 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
430 picks · 503 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
414 picks · 571 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
402 picks · 653 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
376 picks · 595 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
353 picks · 307 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 63%
Hero pool strength56% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total54% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:9
Aster.Aries 47%Xtreme Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 31:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingUlu
48% · 121 game48% · 79 games
Lifestealerlou
Lifestealer
Pangolier
PangolierXwy
50% · 174 games48% · 47 games
Dark SeerELeVeN
Dark Seer
Tiny
Tiny生死
50% · 170 games51% · 276 games
Ember SpiritPaparazi
Ember Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightTK
53% · 86 games47% · 125 games
ClockwerkPyw
Clockwerk
Alchemist
AlchemistRedPanda
36% · 6 games61% · 30 games
VisageDy
Visage
Game 2prediction missed35:17
Aster.Aries 45%Xtreme Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Aster.Aries in 35:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidUlu
40% · 83 games58% · 181 game
Templar Assassinlou
Templar Assassin
Pudge
Pudge生死
40% · 14 games58% · 163 games
PuckPaparazi
Puck
Death Prophet
Death ProphetXwy
50% · 183 games52% · 49 games
VisageELeVeN
Visage
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorRedPanda
47% · 105 games45% · 188 games
SnapfireDy
Snapfire
Monkey King
Monkey KingTK
49% · 201 game56% · 5 games
MarciPyw
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 54%
Series resultAster.Aries 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2