Khaz Modan Cup Season 2 · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Atlantiswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 15 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 15 games
Bane
RR · 13 games
Ogre Magi
RR · 12 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Tino- · 11 games
Death Prophetoften banned
RR · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 9 games
Grimstroke
RR · 9 games
Atlantis
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
486 picks · 677 bans
Tiny
486 picks · 453 bans
Bane
459 picks · 281 bans
Dragon Knight
430 picks · 503 bans
Sand King
414 picks · 571 bans
Storm Spirit
402 picks · 653 bans
Pangolier
376 picks · 595 bans
Grimstroke
353 picks · 307 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Atlantis
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Execration 66%Atlantis 34%
The model gave 66% on Execration — the game was taken by Atlantis.
Game 2prediction missed
Execration 66%Atlantis 34%
The model gave 66% on Execration — the game was taken by Atlantis.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 66%
Series resultAtlantis 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2