Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Team MagMaloss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Fusionwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
Team Fusion
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
486 picks · 454 bans
Mars
484 picks · 677 bans
Bane
459 picks · 282 bans
Dragon Knight
429 picks · 503 bans
Sand King
415 picks · 571 bans
Storm Spirit
402 picks · 655 bans
Pangolier
376 picks · 594 bans
Grimstroke
355 picks · 307 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 75%
Hero pool strength50% Team MagMa
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Team Fusion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:30
Team MagMa 50%Team Fusion 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Fusion — the game was taken by Team Fusion in 48:28.
Game 2prediction correct36:25
Team MagMa 50%Team Fusion 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Fusion — the game was taken by Team Fusion in 47:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Fusion · 50%
Series resultTeam Fusion 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2