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PREMIER SERIES: Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0
series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spirit Academyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 48 games
69%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 45 games
44%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
RESPECT · 40 games
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 38 games
61%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 37 games
68%
Chen
Chensignature
RESPECT · 33 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
erase · 32 games
75%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
erase · 30 games
57%

Team Spirit Academy

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 19 games
21%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
kyford · 16 games
25%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 15 games
53%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
kyford · 13 games
31%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 13 games
46%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
SunshineRR · 12 games
17%
Warlock
Warlock
kyford · 12 games
25%
Lion
Lion
Aidar · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
620 picks · 812 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
549 picks · 569 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
447 picks · 397 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
441 picks · 296 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
396 picks · 1040 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
384 picks · 676 bans
60%
Mars
Mars
378 picks · 592 bans
46%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
358 picks · 513 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 34%
Hero pool strength64% HULIGANI
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total90% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:34
HULIGANI 76%Team Spirit Academy 24%
The model gave 76% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 58:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windrangerssnovv1
50% · 282 games53% · 519 games
Ember Spirit86
Ember Spirit
Monkey King
Monkey KingMirage
57% · 225 games51% · 354 games
Shadow Fiendhairo
Shadow Fiend
Batrider
BatriderCorrupted
52% · 318 games50% · 390 games
Bristlebackkae
Bristleback
Tusk
Tusksayuw
48% · 548 games48% · 659 games
Warlockkyford
Warlock
Jakiro
JakiroRESPECT
44% · 679 games48% · 130 games
LionAidar
Lion
Game 2prediction correct27:19
HULIGANI 78%Team Spirit Academy 22%
The model gave 78% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 33:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusassnovv1
54% · 143 games52% · 246 games
Templar Assassinhairo
Templar Assassin
Viper
ViperMirage
51% · 96 games51% · 182 games
Timbersawkae
Timbersaw
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
47% · 321 gamelittle data
Arc Warden86
Arc Warden
Phoenix
PhoenixRESPECT
42% · 195 games48% · 562 games
Jakirokyford
Jakiro
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansayuw
50% · 319 games56% · 84 games
LionAidar
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 90%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2