?
arrow_backBack to match
Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
HFloss 0:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hydrawin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HF

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Cloud · 14 games
71%
Mirana
Miranasignature
ArrOw · 13 games
77%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 12 games
58%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 12 games
50%
Bane
Bane
Malady · 8 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Kaori · 8 games
75%
Io
Iosignature
Kaori · 7 games
100%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 7 games
57%

Hydra

Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 29 games
48%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Blizzy · 24 games
50%
Bane
Bane
Muka · 20 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 20 games
65%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Muka · 20 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Askold · 19 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 16 games
44%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Zayac · 16 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
483 picks · 452 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
481 picks · 672 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
458 picks · 279 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
422 picks · 499 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
415 picks · 569 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 655 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
375 picks · 581 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
353 picks · 303 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 54%
Hero pool strength56% HF
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total52% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:51
HF 48%Hydra 52%
The model gave 52% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 49:54.
Game 2prediction correct11:46
HF 48%Hydra 52%
The model gave 52% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 28:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 52%
Series resultHydra 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2