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EPL Masters I · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPwin 2:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 12 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 12 games
42%
Techies
Techiessignature
Htrd · 11 games
82%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 10 games
70%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Htrd · 8 games
63%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 8 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 6 games
33%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
WoE · 6 games
83%

Zero Tenacity

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 37 games
62%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 31 game
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
MoOz · 28 games
68%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 27 games
48%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Kami · 22 games
55%
Largo
Largosignature
Nefrit · 20 games
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 19 games
42%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Nefrit · 19 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
492 picks · 357 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
376 picks · 224 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
350 picks · 642 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
337 picks · 340 bans
49%
Windranger
Windranger
317 picks · 228 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
306 picks · 298 bans
61%
Pangolier
Pangolier
291 picks · 394 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
290 picks · 323 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 62%
Hero pool strength52% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total55% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:19
Level UP 48%Zero Tenacity 52%
The model gave 52% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Level UP in 43:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaWoE
59% · 26 games54% · 55 games
NecrophosWorick
Necrophos
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAinkrad
45% · 314 games52% · 112 games
Monkey Kingnesfeer
Monkey King
Tidehunter
TidehunterBb3px
49% · 163 games51% · 125 games
LargoMikSa`
Largo
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorHtrd
43% · 44 games51% · 72 games
Grimstrokemrls
Grimstroke
Dark Willow
Dark Willowqueezy
44% · 132 games58% · 315 games
HoodwinkMoOz
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct17:26
Level UP 46%Zero Tenacity 54%
The model gave 54% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 38:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerWoE
46% · 68 games52% · 15 games
Linanesfeer
Lina
Largo
LargoBb3px
48% · 139 games45% · 130 games
BeastmasterMikSa`
Beastmaster
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAinkrad
42% · 146 games56% · 188 games
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightqueezy
54% · 133 games50% · 47 games
Grimstrokemrls
Grimstroke
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorHtrd
47% · 30 games56% · 136 games
BaneMoOz
Bane
Game 3prediction missed46:36
Level UP 46%Zero Tenacity 54%
The model gave 54% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Level UP in 52:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreWoE
46% · 17 games43% · 117 games
Svennesfeer
Sven
Lycan
LycanBb3px
55% · 90 games45% · 70 games
Earth SpiritWorick
Earth Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAinkrad
54% · 199 games53% · 118 games
UndyingMikSa`
Undying
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkqueezy
49% · 287 games50% · 83 games
Grimstrokemrls
Grimstroke
Dazzle
DazzleHtrd
45% · 40 games54% · 245 games
BaneMoOz
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 55%
Series resultLevel UP 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3