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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Summit Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Made in Philippineswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Summit Gaming

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
TrazaM · 4 games
100%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Nj · 3 games
100%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Unknown- · 2 games
100%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Mercury · 2 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nj · 2 games
50%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Unknown- · 2 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
czy · 2 games
100%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Mercury · 2 games
100%

Made in Philippines

Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Rupido · 2 games
0%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
JG · 2 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Rupido · 2 games
0%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Teehee · 2 games
0%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Rupido · 2 games
0%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Teehee · 2 games
0%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Ken · 2 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Ken · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
482 picks · 451 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
481 picks · 669 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
458 picks · 278 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
420 picks · 498 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
414 picks · 568 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 654 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
370 picks · 579 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
351 picks · 301 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 50%
Hero pool strength65% Summit Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% Summit Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:30
Summit Gaming 59%Made in Philippines 41%
The model gave 59% on Summit Gaming — the game was taken by Made in Philippines in 35:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeUnknown-
57% · 187 games42% · 142 games
MorphlingKen
Morphling
Leshrac
LeshracMercury
58% · 105 games48% · 255 games
PuckJG
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierNj
48% · 229 games50% · 289 games
Dragon KnightRupido
Dragon Knight
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeczy
46% · 185 games54% · 146 games
Treant ProtectorTeehee
Treant Protector
Clockwerk
ClockwerkTrazaM
50% · 126 games
Game 2prediction correct36:28
Summit Gaming 59%Made in Philippines 41%
The model gave 59% on Summit Gaming — the game was taken by Summit Gaming in 40:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingUnknown-
49% · 105 games51% · 212 games
TerrorbladeKen
Terrorblade
Viper
ViperNj
46% · 94 games50% · 70 games
WindrangerJG
Windranger
Sand King
Sand KingMercury
53% · 156 games55% · 331 game
PangolierRupido
Pangolier
Tiny
Tinyczy
51% · 210 games46% · 147 games
GyrocopterTeehee
Gyrocopter
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeTrazaM
46% · 195 games
Game 3prediction missed8:32
Summit Gaming 57%Made in Philippines 43%
The model gave 57% on Summit Gaming — the game was taken by Made in Philippines in 26:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMercury
48% · 254 games52% · 119 games
Templar AssassinKen
Templar Assassin
Juggernaut
JuggernautUnknown-
45% · 55 games49% · 149 games
Dragon KnightRupido
Dragon Knight
Underlord
UnderlordNj
51% · 57 games46% · 135 games
PangolierJG
Pangolier
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanczy
54% · 104 games58% · 99 games
Shadow DemonTeehee
Shadow Demon
Lich
LichTrazaM
46% · 32 games
Model check result
Model favoriteSummit Gaming · 66%
Series resultMade in Philippines 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3