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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SG e-sportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Sacred · 18 games
78%
Tiny
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 18 games
72%
Mars
Marssignature
DarkMago · 16 games
75%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 15 games
87%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 14 games
79%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 13 games
69%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Pakazs · 12 games
92%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Matthew · 10 games
100%

SG e-sports

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
479 picks · 664 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
477 picks · 448 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
455 picks · 278 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
417 picks · 496 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
414 picks · 566 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 653 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
370 picks · 576 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
350 picks · 299 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 67%
Hero pool strength64% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total88% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:22
Thunder Awaken 88%SG e-sports 12%
The model gave 88% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 41:06.
Game 2prediction correct33:21
Thunder Awaken 88%SG e-sports 12%
The model gave 88% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 35:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 88%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2