Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Wolf Teamloss 0:2series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tempestwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wolf Team
No games played over 6 months.
Tempest
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
479 picks · 664 bans
Tiny
475 picks · 448 bans
Bane
455 picks · 277 bans
Dragon Knight
417 picks · 495 bans
Sand King
414 picks · 566 bans
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 653 bans
Pangolier
368 picks · 576 bans
Grimstroke
350 picks · 299 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Wolf Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Wolf Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:36
Wolf Team 69%Tempest 31%
The model gave 69% on Wolf Team — the game was taken by Tempest in 42:16.
Game 2prediction missed12:37
Wolf Team 69%Tempest 31%
The model gave 69% on Wolf Team — the game was taken by Tempest in 28:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteWolf Team · 69%
Series resultTempest 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2