Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Happy Sealsloss 0:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LBLucky Birdwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Happy Seals
No games played over 6 months.
Lucky Bird
Bloodseekeroften banned
Rises · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
BlackSoul · 1 game
Skywrath Mage
FrancisLee · 1 game
Snapfire
FrancisLee · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 1 game
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rises · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
479 picks · 664 bans
Tiny
475 picks · 448 bans
Bane
455 picks · 277 bans
Dragon Knight
417 picks · 495 bans
Sand King
414 picks · 566 bans
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 653 bans
Pangolier
368 picks · 576 bans
Grimstroke
350 picks · 299 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 75%
Hero pool strength57% Lucky Bird
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Lucky Bird
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:38
Happy Seals 41%Lucky Bird 59%
The model gave 59% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by Lucky Bird in 32:09.
Game 2prediction correct32:7
Happy Seals 41%Lucky Bird 59%
The model gave 59% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by Lucky Bird in 28:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteLucky Bird · 59%
Series resultLucky Bird 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2