Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PARI PARNIloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Banesignature
Miposhka · 24 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Yatoro · 13 games
Sand Kingsignature
Collapse · 13 games
Marssignature
Collapse · 12 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 11 games
Grimstroke
Mira · 11 games
Storm Spiritsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 11 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Yatoro · 11 games
PARI PARNI
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
479 picks · 660 bans
Tiny
473 picks · 448 bans
Bane
454 picks · 277 bans
Dragon Knight
414 picks · 495 bans
Sand King
414 picks · 566 bans
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 653 bans
Pangolier
368 picks · 574 bans
Grimstroke
349 picks · 297 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength58% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:5
Team Spirit 78%PARI PARNI 22%
The model gave 78% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 28:39.
Game 2prediction correct36:25
Team Spirit 78%PARI PARNI 22%
The model gave 78% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:00:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 78%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2