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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Dandelion Esport Clubloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Bane
Banesignature
y` · 16 games
63%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
NothingToSay · 16 games
69%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
y` · 14 games
79%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
y` · 11 games
82%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Ame · 10 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 9 games
78%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 9 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
XinQ · 8 games
63%

Dandelion Esport Club

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
475 picks · 659 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
471 picks · 445 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
453 picks · 275 bans
57%
Sand King
Sand King
414 picks · 566 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
413 picks · 491 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 653 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
368 picks · 572 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
347 picks · 295 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 83%
Hero pool strength59% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:42
LGD Gaming 58%Dandelion Esport Club 42%
The model gave 58% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Dandelion Esport Club in 44:06.
Game 2prediction correct32:14
LGD Gaming 58%Dandelion Esport Club 42%
The model gave 58% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 35:02.
Game 3prediction correct35:9
LGD Gaming 58%Dandelion Esport Club 42%
The model gave 58% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 32:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 58%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3