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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
The Cutloss 0:2
series probability
5%95%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TSMwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

The Cut

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 9 games
33%
Techies
Techies
bgod · 9 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 8 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 8 games
50%
Bane
Bane
Overlom · 7 games
29%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 7 games
29%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Giant · 7 games
43%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 7 games
57%

TSM

Bane
Banesignature
DuBu · 19 games
74%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MoonMeander · 12 games
58%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 11 games
82%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 10 games
60%
Io
Iosignature
MoonMeander · 10 games
70%
Mars
Marssignature
SabeRLight- · 10 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
bryle- · 10 games
90%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
MoonMeander · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
474 picks · 659 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
470 picks · 444 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
453 picks · 275 bans
57%
Sand King
Sand King
414 picks · 564 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
411 picks · 490 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
400 picks · 653 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
368 picks · 572 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
345 picks · 295 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 62%
Hero pool strength63% TSM
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total95% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:35
The Cut 19%TSM 81%
The model gave 81% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 23:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaScourge McDuck
53% · 153 games46% · 262 games
KunkkaTimado
Kunkka
Beastmaster
BeastmasterRajjix
55% · 162 games47% · 59 games
LycanSabeRLight-
Lycan
Void Spirit
Void Spirithigh_shaggy
47% · 150 games53% · 271 game
Storm Spiritbryle-
Storm Spirit
Grimstroke
Grimstrokebgod
49% · 214 games48% · 113 games
DoomMoonMeander
Doom
Clockwerk
ClockwerkJubei
52% · 78 games48% · 52 games
ChenDuBu
Chen
Game 2prediction correct15:31
The Cut 18%TSM 82%
The model gave 82% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 27:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Underlord
UnderlordRajjix
47% · 11 games42% · 94 games
MorphlingTimado
Morphling
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinScourge McDuck
46% · 58 games66% · 100 games
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
Beastmaster
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirithigh_shaggy
42% · 120 gameslittle data
Pudgebryle-
Pudge
Enigma
EnigmaJubei
40% · 15 games44% · 11 games
TechiesMoonMeander
Techies
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magebgod
50% · 28 games57% · 27 games
ChenDuBu
Chen
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 95%
Series resultTSM 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2