Студенческая лига 2022 Dota 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
ТГУloss 0:1series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 0:1
ЮФУwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ТГУ
No games played over 6 months.
ЮФУ
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
474 picks · 657 bans
Tiny
470 picks · 442 bans
Bane
452 picks · 275 bans
Sand King
414 picks · 564 bans
Dragon Knight
410 picks · 490 bans
Storm Spirit
400 picks · 653 bans
Pangolier
368 picks · 572 bans
Grimstroke
344 picks · 295 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% ТГУ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% ТГУ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
ТГУ 76%ЮФУ 24%
The model gave 76% on ТГУ — the game was taken by ЮФУ.
Model check result
Model favoriteТГУ · 76%
Series resultЮФУ 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1