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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Bald Rebornwin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
EU Rejectsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Bald Reborn

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Excalibur · 11 games
55%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Gorgc · 11 games
73%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Pablo · 11 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Rajjix · 10 games
40%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Excalibur · 9 games
22%
Tiny
Tiny
Excalibur · 9 games
56%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
bengan · 8 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Pablo · 8 games
38%

EU Rejects

Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
j4 · 2 games
0%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
5up · 1 game
0%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Shad · 1 game
0%
Magnus
Magnus
Chessie · 1 game
0%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Adzantick · 1 game
0%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Shad · 1 game
0%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Adzantick · 1 game
0%
Visage
Visageoften banned
Chessie · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
472 picks · 655 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
468 picks · 441 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
452 picks · 275 bans
57%
Sand King
Sand King
414 picks · 564 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
407 picks · 487 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
400 picks · 653 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
367 picks · 567 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
344 picks · 295 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 40%
Hero pool strength56% Team Bald Reborn
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Team Bald Reborn
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:11
Team Bald Reborn 53%EU Rejects 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 35:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaExcalibur
51% · 150 games45% · 23 games
JuggernautShad
Juggernaut
Bristleback
BristlebackGorgc
48% · 16 games64% · 6 games
VisageChessie
Visage
Dark Seer
Dark SeerZipZaper
44% · 34 games56% · 105 games
InvokerAdzantick
Invoker
Marci
MarciPablo
little data54% · 74 games
Monkey King5up
Monkey King
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenbengan
38% · 12 games50% · 4 games
Witch Doctorj4
Witch Doctor
Game 2prediction correct27:19
Team Bald Reborn 55%EU Rejects 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 34:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackGorgc
42% · 21 game51% · 61 game
Faceless VoidShad
Faceless Void
Lina
LinaExcalibur
51% · 155 games57% · 14 games
VisageChessie
Visage
Clockwerk
ClockwerkZipZaper
45% · 115 games47% · 134 games
Void SpiritAdzantick
Void Spirit
Mirana
MiranaPablo
57% · 206 games51% · 141 game
Enchantressj4
Enchantress
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorbengan
48% · 21 game49% · 168 games
Monkey King5up
Monkey King
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bald Reborn · 62%
Series resultTeam Bald Reborn 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2