Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Polaris Esportsloss 1:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nigma Galaxy SEAwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Polaris Esports
Pangoliersignature
Mac · 20 games
Marssignature
Force · 15 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Boomy · 11 games
Grimstrokesignature
Boomy · 9 games
Snapfiresignature
PlayHard · 9 games
Death Prophetsignature
Mac · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mac · 8 games
Kunkkasignature
Mac · 8 games
Nigma Galaxy SEA
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
469 picks · 655 bans
Tiny
465 picks · 441 bans
Bane
452 picks · 275 bans
Sand King
414 picks · 563 bans
Dragon Knight
406 picks · 487 bans
Storm Spirit
400 picks · 652 bans
Pangolier
367 picks · 564 bans
Grimstroke
342 picks · 295 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 46%
Hero pool strength61% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total59% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:14
Polaris Esports 59%Nigma Galaxy SEA 41%
The model gave 59% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 36:56.
Game 2prediction missed15:34
Polaris Esports 59%Nigma Galaxy SEA 41%
The model gave 59% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 32:03.
Game 3prediction missed19:33
Polaris Esports 59%Nigma Galaxy SEA 41%
The model gave 59% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 43:19.
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 59%
Series resultNigma Galaxy SEA 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3