Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Infinity Esportsloss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
beastcoastwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infinity Esports
Weaveroften banned
Jupiter · 13 games
Marsoften banned
Cys · 11 games
Snapfire
Jupiter · 9 games
Invokeroften banned
mini-` · 8 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Benny · 7 games
Bane
Nuages · 6 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
mini-` · 6 games
Lion
Jupiter · 5 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
469 picks · 655 bans
Tiny
465 picks · 441 bans
Bane
452 picks · 275 bans
Sand King
414 picks · 563 bans
Dragon Knight
406 picks · 487 bans
Storm Spirit
400 picks · 652 bans
Pangolier
367 picks · 564 bans
Grimstroke
342 picks · 295 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 48%
Hero pool strength55% beastcoast
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total70% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Infinity Esports 30%beastcoast 70%
The model gave 70% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast.
Game 2prediction correct
Infinity Esports 30%beastcoast 70%
The model gave 70% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 70%
Series resultbeastcoast 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2