Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Arkosh Gamingwin 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
5ManMidasloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Arkosh Gaming
Ursaoften banned
Double King · 1 game
Wraith Kingoften banned
Double King · 1 game
5ManMidas
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
469 picks · 653 bans
Tiny
464 picks · 441 bans
Bane
452 picks · 274 bans
Sand King
413 picks · 562 bans
Dragon Knight
406 picks · 485 bans
Storm Spirit
400 picks · 652 bans
Pangolier
367 picks · 561 bans
Grimstroke
341 picks · 295 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 44%
Hero pool strength57% 5ManMidas
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% Arkosh Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:51
Arkosh Gaming 52%5ManMidas 48%
The model gave 52% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 44:11.
Game 2prediction correct37:36
Arkosh Gaming 52%5ManMidas 48%
The model gave 52% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 32:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteArkosh Gaming · 52%
Series resultArkosh Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2