Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaisersloss 0:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
No Sorrywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
No Sorry
Bane
BLACKARXANGEL · 38 games
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 34 games
Marsoften banned
LastHero- · 29 games
Tiny
Worick · 28 games
Hoodwink
y0nd · 27 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Worick · 26 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 23 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
469 picks · 651 bans
Tiny
464 picks · 440 bans
Bane
450 picks · 274 bans
Sand King
413 picks · 562 bans
Dragon Knight
406 picks · 485 bans
Storm Spirit
400 picks · 652 bans
Pangolier
366 picks · 561 bans
Grimstroke
341 picks · 295 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% No Sorry
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:20
HellRaisers 52%No Sorry 48%
The model gave 52% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by No Sorry in 34:40.
Game 2prediction missed18:27
HellRaisers 52%No Sorry 48%
The model gave 52% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by No Sorry in 36:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 52%
Series resultNo Sorry 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2