Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Mind Gamesloss 0:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Rune Eaterswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Mind Games
No games played over 6 months.
Rune Eaters
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 6 games
Tinysignature
TA2000 · 6 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
ArrOw · 5 games
Mirana
ArrOw · 5 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
hAze · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
469 picks · 650 bans
Tiny
464 picks · 440 bans
Bane
448 picks · 274 bans
Sand King
412 picks · 562 bans
Dragon Knight
404 picks · 484 bans
Storm Spirit
400 picks · 652 bans
Pangolier
365 picks · 561 bans
Grimstroke
340 picks · 294 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Mind Games
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Mind Games
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:23
Mind Games 52%Rune Eaters 48%
The model gave 52% on Mind Games — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 39:10.
Game 2prediction missed27:11
Mind Games 52%Rune Eaters 48%
The model gave 52% on Mind Games — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 44:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteMind Games · 52%
Series resultRune Eaters 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2