Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Royal Never Give Uploss 0:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Dandelion Esport Clubwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Dandelion Esport Club
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
469 picks · 650 bans
Tiny
462 picks · 440 bans
Bane
448 picks · 274 bans
Sand King
412 picks · 562 bans
Dragon Knight
404 picks · 483 bans
Storm Spirit
400 picks · 652 bans
Pangolier
364 picks · 561 bans
Grimstroke
340 picks · 294 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 82%
Hero pool strength50% Royal Never Give Up
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Royal Never Give Up
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:22
Royal Never Give Up 52%Dandelion Esport Club 48%
The model gave 52% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Dandelion Esport Club in 37:18.
Game 2prediction missed26:33
Royal Never Give Up 52%Dandelion Esport Club 48%
The model gave 52% on Royal Never Give Up — the game was taken by Dandelion Esport Club in 53:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteRoyal Never Give Up · 52%
Series resultDandelion Esport Club 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2