Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Shenzhenloss 1:2series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TSTeam Saiyanwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shenzhen
No games played over 6 months.
Team Saiyan
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
469 picks · 647 bans
Tiny
461 picks · 440 bans
Bane
448 picks · 274 bans
Sand King
412 picks · 561 bans
Dragon Knight
402 picks · 483 bans
Storm Spirit
400 picks · 652 bans
Pangolier
364 picks · 561 bans
Grimstroke
340 picks · 294 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Shenzhen
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Shenzhen
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:13
Shenzhen 72%Team Saiyan 28%
The model gave 72% on Shenzhen — the game was taken by Team Saiyan in 44:49.
Game 2prediction missed27:23
Shenzhen 72%Team Saiyan 28%
The model gave 72% on Shenzhen — the game was taken by Team Saiyan in 49:02.
Game 3prediction missed15:21
Shenzhen 72%Team Saiyan 28%
The model gave 72% on Shenzhen — the game was taken by Team Saiyan in 34:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteShenzhen · 72%
Series resultTeam Saiyan 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3