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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Infamouswin 2:0
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Infamous

Bane
Banesignature
Prada · 7 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
PiPi · 7 games
71%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Pamplona · 6 games
83%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
PiPi · 5 games
40%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Mariano · 5 games
80%
Mirana
Mirana
Pamplona · 5 games
80%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
PiPi · 5 games
80%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rises · 5 games
60%

Thunder Awaken

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Sacred · 19 games
79%
Tiny
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 19 games
74%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 16 games
88%
Mars
Marssignature
DarkMago · 15 games
80%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 14 games
71%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 14 games
79%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Pakazs · 12 games
92%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Sacred · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
468 picks · 647 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
461 picks · 438 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
448 picks · 274 bans
57%
Sand King
Sand King
412 picks · 560 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
402 picks · 483 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
400 picks · 652 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
364 picks · 561 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
338 picks · 294 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 65%
Hero pool strength58% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total76% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:35
Infamous 24%Thunder Awaken 76%
The model gave 76% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 49:27.
Game 2prediction correct22:22
Infamous 24%Thunder Awaken 76%
The model gave 76% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 27:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 76%
Series resultInfamous 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2