?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChamploss 1:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
cybercatswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PuckChamp

No games played over 6 months.

cybercats

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Hduo · 10 games
20%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Shigetsu · 9 games
22%
Bane
Bane
Hduo · 8 games
25%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fezor · 5 games
20%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Hduo · 5 games
40%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
USHUSHUSH · 5 games
80%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
USHUSHUSH · 5 games
20%
Tiny
Tiny
Shigetsu · 5 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
468 picks · 647 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
460 picks · 437 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
448 picks · 274 bans
57%
Sand King
Sand King
411 picks · 560 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
402 picks · 482 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
400 picks · 647 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
362 picks · 560 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
335 picks · 294 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 43%
Hero pool strength57% PuckChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:33
PuckChamp 54%cybercats 46%
The model gave 54% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by cybercats in 30:35.
Game 2prediction missed30:29
PuckChamp 54%cybercats 46%
The model gave 54% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by cybercats in 41:52.
Game 3prediction missed38:27
PuckChamp 54%cybercats 46%
The model gave 54% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by cybercats in 43:37.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 54%
Series resultcybercats 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3